Saturday, June 24, 2006

Draft Day Trades

With rumors flying fast and thick a few different people have e-mailed with some version of the question, "Do you think we'll make a trade to move in the draft?" I'll tell you the truth, I am wondering too. Your guess is as good as mine. I'm not sure many of the GMs even know at this point.

You almost never see draft deals consummated before the day of the draft. Most often they're during the draft itself. There are a couple of reasons for this:

1. Teams with attractive picks want to maximize their trade value, so they wait to hear all offers. Unlike regular trades, there's little pressure to execute a draft pick deal. Lots of teams might have tantalizing power forwards and back up point guards, but where else is your trade partner going to go to get your spot in the draft order? You're the only one who has it, which generally means a seller's market, which generally means late execution of trades.

2. Having or getting a high pick means a lot of excitement for fans and media types, but picks in the abstract mean nothing to GM's no matter what the number. Only PLAYERS matter. And unless you're talking the #1 pick, you don't know what player will be available with a pick until the selections are actually made. No GM in the world will trade to get a pick without knowing what player he can get with it. This is especially true of high picks which cost a lot to trade for. You don't want to empty your wallet thinking "Lebron" and end up with Darko, Kwame, or Joe Smith instead. That's a fireable offense. The only scenario in which I can see a pre-draft-day trade happening is if a team likes two great prospects equally and moves to get the second pick, knowing one of them will be there. Utah did this last year with Portland right before the draft. They knew Bogut was going to one of the first two teams and I assume that they would have been happy with either Deron Williams or Chris Paul, so they traded for #3. Obviously Portland felt the same about pick #6. Even that was more rare than seeing both teams make selections in their respective slots and then swapping the players, leaving no room for uncertainty.

Of course this early-trade scenario gets progressively more unlikely the farther down the pick order you go. Especially in this year's draft where talent is mixed and nobody knows who will pick who, the number of people who would like four of the top players equally and would be willing to place a trade value on any or all of them well before the fact is miniscule...probably none. For this reason I expect we will not see our fourth pick traded early.

This also means this draft will be the most exciting one to watch in recent memory despite (and because of) the lack of proven talent. I know I will be glued to my seat Wednesday afternoon. If you've never watched on I suggest you do the same. (You have to watch the whole first round to see if there are any moves!) If nothing else, it will be interesting.

--Dave (


Anonymous fatty said...

your serious right i'll be
on the golf course or riding
horses on wednsday night my
time now next year at this
time if were picking 1 or 2
i'll be at msg with my noah
or oden jersey on and by the
way if the 4th pick and miles
for the 8th and j.howard is
for the right to draft
good move later dave !!!

3:17 PM  
Anonymous School Marm said...

Teacher's grammatic corrections to the above:

You're serious, right? I'll be on the golf course or riding horses on Wednesday night, my time. Now, next year at this time (if I were picking 1 or 2) I'll be at MSG with my Noah or Oden jersey on. And by the way, if the 4th pick and Miles for the 8th and J.Howard is for the right to draft R. Gay, good move! Later, Dave!!!

1:13 PM  
Anonymous brian said...

To be perfectly honest, I don't think there's much discernable difference between the top 5-6 picks in this draft, so I'll be satisfied with whoever the Blazers get at #4. My biggest fear is that they're going to make a deal to move UP in order to snag Morrison.

9:18 PM  
Anonymous knuckleheads said...

The draft this year is more important because it allows the Blazers a time/place to achieve their #1 objective - moving DMiles and possibly ZBo. Subtracting our negatives will be more significant this year to the sale and performance of the team than the positive additions we make with our picks.

6:40 AM  
Anonymous less-confused said...

School Marm,

I'd like to say "Thank You". It always hurts my head to ready Fatty's posts, but the time you took to translate it into proper english for the rest of us to read made it hurt much less. Maybe you could have Fatty send the posts to you first for editing!

I think i speak for most of the readers here when i say Thanks again!

7:21 AM  

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