Monday, May 08, 2006

Trading Post--Zach and Darius

I calculated some combo-trade scenarios for Zach and Darius. Since Zach is virtually untradeable one-for-one, this should open up some doors. I know some folks want Theo in there too, but if you move the forwards I think you have to keep him for stability in the frontcourt. Also his salary doesn't hurt nearly so much with theirs off the book, and he becomes a much more valuable trading chip next season when he enters the last year of his deal. A Theo and Darius combo is a possibility I suppose, but the carrot is pretty small talent and stability-wise for the other team to take on that much salary. I think Zach's talent is what would get the deal done for Darius and Darius' added salary would open up new players to trade Zach for.

See the posts below for the (severe) limitations of this list. These are trades that should work or come close. After Zach's Base Year Compensation status expires in July, more things will open up. Some of these trades are workable now, though. Remember this list is value-neutral on everything besides salary. Even if there's no way you could get a player it's interesting to measure how much some teams are getting for comparable money. All trades are for one player in return for our two.

Trades for Zach and Darius that Would Work Today:
Tracy McGrady--Houston
Eddie Jones--Memphis
Stephon Marbury, Jalen Rose--New York
Grant Hill--Orlando
Allen Iverson--Philadelphia

Trades that Should Be Close (BYC expiring, 2006-07 salary adjustments, minor throw-ins):
Paul Pierce--Boston
Dirk Nowitzki--Dallas
Baron Davis--Golden State
Jermaine O'Neal--Indiana
Kobe Bryant--LA Lakers
Shaquille O'Neal--Miami
Kevin Garnett--Minnesota
Jason Kidd, Vince Carter--New Jersey
Steve Francis--New York
Chris Webber--Philadelphia
Shawn Marion--Phoenix
Tim Duncan--San Antonio

Analysis:
Superstars abound at this level of the stratosphere. Amid the "wishful thinking" scenarios and a few icebergs in the ocean (Marbury, Francis, Webber) there are a couple of doable trades, especially if you want salary cap space. (See the analysis of possible Darius trades for thoughts on that.) Eddie Jones, Grant Hill, and Jalen Rose would all work right this instant, and each one of their contracts expire next season. With Howard in Orlando and Gasol in Memphis, it's unlikely that Zach would be a priority for them, but you never know. I still think New York might bite if all it cost them was Rose. As I've said before, we'd be bad next year, but we're going to be bad next year whatever we do. And things would look a lot rosier in the summer of 2007 with a couple of high draft picks in the fold, our guards having developed for a season more, and a lot of cap space with which to fill in the gaps. For those who would like to move Zach (and at this point I consider it necessary) this would seem to be the best, and maybe the only reasonable, option.

--Dave blazersub@yahoo.com

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about Garnett? Do you see him as a real possibility?

8:59 AM  
Anonymous Lance Uppercut said...

In regards to Zach, I thought you might like to check out this post on Lowpost.net. Granted, the results are probably skewed due to the crazy amount of games the Blazers lost this year, but it certainly proves that K-Mart is NOT the guy the Blazers should be swapping Z-Bo for. Love the blog.

9:45 AM  
Blogger Dave said...

Great question! His name has sure been tossed about by Portland fans. I don't see him as a possibility. For one, I used to live in the Twin Cities and I saw how much they love him, warts and all. He sells their tickets. Second, he's one of the top 5-6 players in the game. Minnesota would have to get back equal big-name talent or at least a ton of cap space to consider trading him. If you look at the players we'd send to them, neither are there. (In fact our contracts run longer than his at the same money.) Besides, if KG is pitching a fit and becoming a problem (supposedly part of the reason for trading him) it's because he's unhappy about losing. I doubt that the idea of coming here right now would suddenly fill him with sunshine and smiles. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get KG, but I would be very, very surprised if it happened.

--Dave

9:47 AM  
Blogger Dave said...

Thank you Lance! I am six kinds of honored that you (as a great blogger yourself) would say that.

I agree that K-Mart is NOT the answer. In fact I was saying to somebody just yesterday that making that deal would probably sink us. I feel strongly that the key to making moves is NOT taking on middle-of-the-road guys with huge contracts, as that's what we already have and it ain't working! If we could get a legit superstar I'd do it, but I don't think we can. Thus my emphasis on cap space as the most reasonable solution and my prayer that everyone in management will see it that way and have the foresight to think longer-term. (I'm scared about that, though. Coaches never think long-term and all the management guys could be short-timers at this point.)

--Dave

9:51 AM  
Blogger Dave said...

By the way, Lance, your comment jarred me into thinking I should have linked your blog. Sorry about the oversight. I'm going to use a little bit from that article you mentioned.

--Dave

9:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think a blow up is required. Hopefully team will be appealing as "good" kids try hard and then good team could on horizon with high draft picks and cap space to reward key players- not get free agents. Here are my three trade ideas, none of which are original. 1) Theo and Darius Miles for Jalen Rose's expiring contract; 2) Zach to Milwaukee, who trade Magloire and Williams to Toronto who send high first round pick (6,7?) to Portland; 3) Dixon and Blake to Miami for Doleac and rookie(either Simien or Dorrell Wright). I think Joel Przybila is gone, so next year's team will be bad- maybe 20 wins. But should be good in future if they draft Aldridge and Splitter this year and hopefully either Noah or Oden next year. Getting "fair value" for Zack is a waste.

8:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

nice site dave. i think you may be giving up on a possible garnett deal too soon. i know minny fans would hate to give up KG after all these years. if you are KG you have to look at the wolves unbalanced roster and inexperienced coach and most of all on the questionable decisions mchale has made in the past. portland has potentially great youngsters in telfair and webster with a great coach in nate and a real need for his leadership. If we offer zach,miles and blake and our 3 draft picks for KG and madsen and their 1st round pick. maybe garnett is untradeable but a player like him could force a trade and portland could be a terrific fit for him and us. minny would get 3 starters and 3 picks in the first 33(one possibly the 1st overall). who could offer the wolves a better deal?

3:24 PM  
Blogger Dave said...

Wow! That's a lot. It appears to work salary-wise. I could only see Minnesota thinking about it if our pick was top 1 or 2 though. I know it sounds good getting three picks and I know afficionados love to speculate about getting steals with the later ones, but those 30 and 31 selections are worthless when you're talking trading for a superstar. Another problem is that we'd only be able to consummate the trade after July 1st, but the draft comes in June. I know we could just pick who they want, but time gaps like that always make me nervous. I'd worry about them getting a better offer last second and then we're left with a guy we didn't choose. And I still don't see Minnesota taking on those huge contracts. But congratulations, you've at least gotten me to admit that they might have to look at that deal twice! And if you go with my Jalen Rose option as the best available so far, yours basically adds Blake and a speculative pick and switches our reward from just cap space to bona fide superstar. I'd consider that a serious upgrade! If it worked, yours would be better.

As far as who could offer an even better deal, though, they might still consider Jermaine O'Neal and an Indiana point guard superior even to that package.

--Dave

11:42 PM  

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